CNN’s Senior Data Reporter, Harry Enten, had more bad news for Democrats. It looks like the odds of their fantasy of taking back the House have ‘plummeted.”
Harry Enten: Okay, so if you go back six months ago, you go back to April, what were we looking at?
Well, we were looking at the Democrats with a very clear shot of taking control of the US House of Representatives, according to the Kalshi Prediction Market odds. We saw them in an 83% chance, but those odds have gone plummeting down.
Now we’re talking about just a 63% chance, while the GOP’s chances, up like a rocket, up like gold, up from 17% to now a 37% chance.
So we’ll look like a pretty clear likely democratic win in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss-up at this point, although still slightly leading Democratic.
Kate Bolduan: What’s changed? What are you seeing?
Harry Enten: Okay, what has changed? Well, why don’t we just take a look at the national picture first? Take a look at voters and how they’re feeling about things, and we can take a look at the generic Congressional ballot, and I want to take a look and compare it to 2017, 2018, right? Because that’s the baseline. That was, of course, the first Trump term. That was where Democrats were sort of keeping pace.
You go back to April, look at the generic Congressional ballot. What did you see? You see plus three Democrats in 2025 in April. You see plus three Democrats back in April of 2017.
Now, jump over to this side of the screen. What happens?
Well, the Democrats are no longer keeping pace with the pace that they were setting back in 2017, 2018. You look back in 2017, you saw that the Democrats had leaped up to an eight-point advantage. I remember covering this. I remember a lot of folks, including myself, saying, ‘You know what? Republicans look pretty decent right now in terms of the fact that they had the House, they had the Senate, they had the presidency, but things were likely going to flip,’ and I was looking for the same signs this year.
The bottom line is it hasn’t happened, Kate Bolduan, it hasn’t happened. Democrats have stayed basically steady. They have fallen off the pace. Democrats were way out ahead back in 2017 on the generic congressional ballot. Now we’re basically looking at Democrats ahead. But again, they are so far in back of the pace that they set back there. And so I think what a lot of folks are seeing, folks like myself are saying, ‘Wait a minute, given what we might be seeing in redistricting, is this plus three going to be enough,’ Kate Bolduan?
Kate Bolduan: That’s what I was going to ask. One change from that cycle is also this mid-decade redistricting effort that we’ve been covering so much. Add that in, and what do you get?
Harry Enten: Okay, so we add that, and we take a look at the national picture, but then we, of course, taking a look at the state legislators. They are potentially changing things, and there are two things that are going on here.
First off, mid-decade redistricting gains. If both sides max out at this point, there are more Republican gains possible than Democratic gains.
Yes, the Democrats might try to counter a California, but you go along in the different states, and basically, Democrats run out of room where Republicans are able to gain and gain and gain. If both sides max out, we’re probably looking at a GOP gain of plus seven House seats.
That doesn’t even take into account the potential gutting of the VRA that is right now going to be in front of the Supreme Court. If you add that in, you could be looking-
Kate Bolduan: By the way, the Voting Rights Act.
Harry Enten: Yes, exactly right. The Voting Rights Act. If you add that in, then you could be looking at about adding 10 12, 15, 17 on top of this seven seats. I think a lot of folks like myself are looking at this. We’re seeing, Hey, wait a minute, those national polls are Democrats are not gaining the way that we expect it. Then you add in the fact that the state legislators are adding potentially more GOP seats like they’ve already done down in Texas, like they’ve done in Missouri. Then you add in the potential gutting of the VRA, and all of a sudden it becomes much more difficult for Democrats to gain, especially given that they are not keeping up with their 2017, 2018 pace.
Kate Bolduan: And as you said, that also makes it difficult to compare it to past examples in history because this is such a different new landscape that we’re looking at.
Harry Enten: It’s a different new landscape, and we’re not quite sure how much Democrats will have to be ahead of the National House in order to gain control.
Watch:
Democrats’ chance of taking the House in 2026 have plummeted, while GOP chances have skyrocketed over the last 6 months…
Why?
1. Dems aren’t keeping up with the pace they set in 2017 on the generic ballot.
2. GOP may be looking at big gains from mid-decade redistricting. pic.twitter.com/iauGwkTmp2
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 15, 2025
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